Here’s How the Betting Markets Think ‘Game of Thrones’ Will End

There’s just two episodes of Game of Thrones left and everyone has theories about how it’s going to end. If you’re willing to put your wallet where you mouth is, you could make some serious bank. Here are some of the odds is giving for various outcomes on the A Song of Ice and Fire adaptation.

The biggest question is who will sit on the Iron Throne at the end of the season, and the frontrunners are exactly who you’d expect; Jon Snow, aka Aegon Targaryen is the favorite at +250, which means a $100 bet will pay out $250. Just behind him is his sister Sansa Stark at +300 and his aunt and lover Daenerys Targaryen at +400. The longest odds are on Ser Davos Seaworth at +8000 while current queen and series villain Cersei Lannister is at +1000, close to Arya and Bran Stark.

I don’t think there’s a real possibility that anyone but Jon Snow or Daenerys Targaryen ends up on the throne, and maybe the two of them together. But this season and last season have been rushed in a way that’s doing the show a disservice, and one of the most obvious casualties is Daenerys’s story. Many seasons ago, discussing Joffrey’s cruelty, Tyrion told Cersei that they said one in three Targaryens went mad because of all the inbreeding, and that her other two kids were wonderful people. People in fiction don’t just say things like that, they call that sort of thing Chekhov’s gun. Daenerys had two brothers, Rhaegar and Viserys; we were supposed to believe that Viserys was the crazy one, but since returning to Westeros Dany has been somewhat unstable and ruthless.

Since the White Walkers were defeated, I don’t think we’re going to get the “villain wins” ending. The Battle of Winterfell just reduced Dany and Jon’s army to the same size as Cersei’s to heighten the drama, but Cersei is almost certainly going to die, and my guess is she does it next week, on Mother’s Day.

As for who will kill her, Arya Stark is leading the odds at +140 and Jamie Lannister is right behind her at +175. Cersei lives is basically next at +600, and Dany and Tyrion are behind that at +750. Personally, my (figurative, because gambling is dumb) money is on Dany. This s**t has gotten personal for her and she has a dragon.

For everyone concerned about romance, the odds of Jon and Dany getting married at +300 for and -500 against (meaning a $500 bet would pay out $100), but Sansa and Tyrion giving marriage another go is just behind it at +500 for and -900 against. The best odds for a couple, however, is Arya and Gendry, with the odds of her accepting his proposal +275 for and -450 against.

Finally, the bet I found the most interesting is who will have the last line in the series, which must be a spoken word. The surprising leader of the pack is Samwell Tarley at even money, +100, followed closely by Jon Snow at +150 with Ser Bronn of the Blackwater pulling up the rear at +3300.

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