R. Kelly Will Die Within Five Years

R. Kelly received a 30 year sentence today for racketeering and sex trafficking. Studies and analyses of life expectancy say Kelly will die within five years.

Right now, R. Kelly is 55. He’ll be 85 in thirty years when his sentence ends. It’s not that straightforward though.

Studies have shown time in prison significantly reduces life expectancy.

In her 2013 analysis of New York state parole data, Professor Evelyn Patterson identified a linear relationship between incarceration and life expectancy: for each year lived behind bars, a person can expect to lose two years off their life expectancy.

This means Kelly loses two years for every year he’s in prison. Put another way, the minute Kelly sets in prison, he ages at three times the rate of non-imprisoned people.

That’s not all though.

Black people in America had a life expectancy almost four years less than white people prior to the COVID pandemic.

This is according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

They found that in 1990, Black Americans lived seven years fewer than whites. But by 2018, that number dropped to 3.6 years.

However, COVID reduced the life expectancy of all populations. For black men though, COVID caused a three year decline in life expectancy (compared to about 1.1 years for the white population). Per National Center for Health Statistics:

Amid the devastation caused by the coronavirus, Black men are experiencing a drop in life expectancy comparable to the years 1942 and 1943, when World War II was worsening. Back then, the average American’s lifespan dropped by 2.9 years, Arias said (CDC did not start tracking racial disparities in life expectancy until 2006). During the 1918 influenza pandemic, U.S. life expectancy sank by 11 years, she added.

In 2019, the life expectancy of black men was 72 years. The pandemic reduced that an additional three years. So, life expectancy for black men now is about 69 years.

Now we do some math. Kelly goes to prison at 55. In one year, he’ll be 56 and his life expectancy goes from 69 to 67 due to being imprisoned. At 57, his life expectancy will be 65. And so on.

Carry that forward until his actual age and his life expectancy converge.

R. Kelly dies at age 60 based on the math.